The Next War?

 

The past couple of months in New Eden have been quite a buzz of activity, roller coaster rides and explosions, some more obvious while others have snuck by. While the war in the East is winding down, it appears that out West some key developments could be the creating perfect storm for the next major conflict in short order.


The Winding Path

I will start by reminding the reader that the last major CFC/Imperium conflict was with PanFam in the North, but the major objective that was stated, and arguably won, was the alleviation of the southern front with The Initiative fighting MC and NC. This is important because the winding path to the current situation starts with the Western Geography of New Eden. In the east, there are more low and nullsec regions to cross if going from north to South, particularly from Delve, while in the West there are up to four lowsec and three nullsec regions from Delve to the greater North. The path taken to deploy to Hakonen was a long one, placing the Imperium squarely on Pandemic Legions front door. Now I beg your pardon while we connect the dots from the battle for Hakonen to today.

The haphazard but successful and funny story of Galmilistan in Cloud Ring, along with the move of pirate-powerhouse Snuffed Out to full member in the Imperium Coalition, has made the West a little wilder lately. Black Rise, one of EVE’s top destinations for pirates, soloists and small gang warfare has seen an uptick in activity from Goonswarm, Snuffed Out, and an uptick in sparring and moon claims with the Caldari and Gallente Militias. Whereas a year ago a Waffles gang or PL militia aid was more frequent, the uptick in CFC-aligned powers and the decreased presence of other major coalitions is certainly something noticeable to residents and to visitors alike.

Though seemingly a long way off (read: Middle of nowhere), the Fountain region comes into play where the Heathens Coalition successfully evicted The-Culture allies in nearby pockets while The-Culture prepared to evacuate to seek greener pastures In October. The-Culture’s withdrawal was slow at first with T-C leadership having been clear that this would be “on their own terms”. When the move came, it came quickly; with their Keepstar successfully unanchored and moved, other remaining assets were moved out in short order. And though it took over a week for the first few systems of southern Fountain to be truly lost, the rest of Fountain fell within a week, mostly to CONDI and their Initiative allies.

Some serious competition has sprung up between former or current Querious Fight Club residents for the other half of Fountain, but it seems to be settling down into its own “Fight Club” of sorts. In the arrangement, all sides have diplomatic agreements with Goons, Initiative, and their local partners to promote joint defense and prevent major SOV and structure wars internally.


The Side Door

So why does this matter? The Initiative has taken half of Fountain, all the way to the opposing regional gate in Cloud Ring, where it borders on Galmilistan and the Caldari-Gallente war zone. And on top of that, we have the regional pocket of Pandemic Horde that projects their power on Western Low-Security Space, defending their ratting and mining systems in Fade. Though on the regional map it appears that the Imperium are still miles from Panfam, the moves of Init and Snuffed place them in Lonetrek, Black Rise, and Cloud ring within a couple of bridges and gates to Delve while still maintaining friendly space and accessible Keepstars. Without leaving friendly territory they could stage and project force into Horde areas, slightly out of reach of the NC. And PL bases in Tribute and Vale. By using “the side door” this front appears a much better one for Goonswarm and its allies when compared to Hakonen. A full deployment move op wouldn’t and I should say, hasn’t, been required to begin gathering forces.


Breaking the Locks

Up to now this is all very dismissible as conjecture but if we take a closer look we will see that a moderate conflict is already here, and it could heat up very quickly. A fact of the present is that a major Horde Hub and an Imperium aligned system are within a few short jumps. Goonswarm fleets have become a regular occurrence in both Fade and Pure Blind, with Horde staging and ratting systems being forced to dock up and form responses several times daily, but with little in the way of major battles or meaningful disruptions as of yet.

Horde activity into Black Rise has also seen an increase, where tension can only rise as Horde redeployed home recently from the war to the East. Another spark to the fire is the addition of Guristas Capital Ships and Sotiyos, which have been found but not successfully destroyed as of yet. Recently, a Pandemic Horde fleet managed to defeat The Initiative during the final NPC Sotiyo timer, denying the valuable blueprints it may have granted.

As of last night, Imperium forces have reportedly reinforced at least two refineries in Cloud Ring, though independent verification has not yet been obtained. Should the reports be true, Sky Marshall and FC Asher Elias was leading the fleet, which broke off an Interceptor gang into Fade to attack Horde forces while a secondary FC continued to assault the structures in Cloud Ring. This hints at something bigger, and is hopefully not a simple boring Sunday night or another blue ball war.

Interviews with Pandemic Horde and Imperium leadership have not yet taken place, but I look forward to speaking with them soon about these developments which, Bob willing, results in a large strategic operation for both sides between Fade and Fountain.

Tags: Nikolai Mazinkov

About the author

Nikolai Mazinkov

Former PvE and lowsec soloist with strong Gallente ties. Long time industry and trading mogul before turning full (bad) PvP’er and FC. CEO of Blue Republic and RvB AT XIV Team member. NPSI & lowsec enthusiast. Possible back room banker. Very Safe.


  • Eli

    An article based on wishful thinking, is not real journalism. There is no ‘next war’…. we’re too busy ratting and mining moon goo. The Culture left and sold it’s structures to Goons and didn’t get pushed out. The activities in Pure Blind have largely been against SLYCE rorquals, not Pandemic Horde. The Cloud Ring clashes have been fairly small skirmishes. This article is so far off the mark it’s not funny.

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      I believe I responded to this on reddit already, but the article highlights many facts and reports against the backdrop of a possible war. Even if the war doesn’t happen, there are plenty of other developments and mechanisms at play that are reported and factual, so even if you don’t care for the conjecture, there is still reporting going on.

      I do believe the moon goo and ratting are going to be a key focus of most groups, but because the Imperium now has reach into Black Rise/The Citadel and Cloud Ring, this puts them in much closer contact that has spurred renewed skirmishes that form at least a border for frequent attack, which has been demonstrated.

  • dank loot

    Snuff has moved to minnie fw space

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      Some of the Corp changes were pretty hard to track and contact, I could probably research a whole piece just on SNUFF and Project Mayhem this past year if I got contacts from the major corps inside. Some major parts of them still remain in Black Rise, fighting alongside CONDI, and the citadel hub is still there.

      You are correct, though, many have, for now at least, moved to Amarr/Minnie FW space in the East.

  • Hittings

    This article is factually incorrect in so many areas its not even credible

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      There are a couple clarifications and a correction about the keepstar coming, the information was not verifiable at publishing. Are there any other facts you find incorrect?

      • Hittings

        There was no eviction. TC wasnt growing and couldnt hold us tz. They decided to sell.

        Drums of war over throwaway doctrine skirmishes for content.

        Instead of just writing lies and asking everyone to do your journalism for you? Why dont you do it yourself considering thats your job.

        • Nikolai Mazinkov

          I never said T-C was evicted, said some of their friends were.

          • Lekly

            “Heathens Coalition successfully evicted The-Culture”

  • raknor bile

    Ok so TC didnt unanchor the keepstar we sold it to goons.

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      Apologies, I will look up who I attempted to contact from T-C, and sorry for not digging further on that fact, I will correct. Since you are a big dog in T-C please let me know who I could add to a list for any future questions or clarifications, T-C is one of the groups I have never heard back from when attempting contact.

  • Fountain Resident

    “Some serious competition has sprung up between former or current Querious Fight Club residents for the other half of Fountain, but it seems to be settling down into its own “Fight Club” of sorts. In the arrangement, all sides have diplomatic agreements with Goons, Initiative, and their local partners to promote joint defense and prevent major SOV and structure wars internally.”

    This whole paragraph is just all sorts of wrong. Did you even bother to reach out to ANYONE living in the area? Seems to be a common theme throughout your article…

    Why don’t you reach out to someone like Tridgit or Deckhard Aura or someone from Gang Bang Team or SOMEONE who actually lives in the region. You basically did zero fact finding.

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      Perhaps from your point of view.

      I did reach out to resident alliances, and they confirmed a bluish fight club kind of arrangement.

      • Tridgit

        They confirmed incorrectly then.

        • Nikolai Mazinkov

          Hey Tridgit, 😀

          will reach out soon

  • John Walker

    I will start by reminding the reader that the last major CFC/Imperium conflict was with PanFam in the North, but the major objective that was stated, “and arguably won”
    “WON” lold

    • Nikolai Mazinkov

      They claimed to relieve stress on Syndicate, even if temporarily, which was a stated goal. Is it a big deal or a true objective victory? No. Sorry if it came off as spin, haha, I wasn’t going for that, just leaving it up to you do decide how that whole war worked, or didn’t 🙂

      • John Walker

        ‘This is going to be a dirty war. We will hit them hard… blah, blag, goalposts… more blah, blah’
        /The Mittani/
        All they hit was PanFam’s balls with their butts lol.

        Check the facts, mate. Unless you are still spinning.

        • Nikolai Mazinkov

          Haha. Yes, nut to butt happened for the focus of the war. I admit that.

  • Saint Michael’s Soul

    Galmilistan best milistan.

  • Viince_Snetterton

    Only way there will be a “war” is if it is the interests one or more of the RMT cartels.
    Wars are bad for business.

    Only way goons make a push into someone else’s turf is if:
    a. goon leadership is raking in more ISK than they can sell.
    b. CCP asks them to “create content” as a marketing tool, with CCP promising something good for leadership in return.
    c.Like any good organized crime group, goon leadership recognizes a potential increase in their RMT operations if they take over someone else’ territory.
    d. a and b
    e. b and c

  • DustVet

    F all these haters. I liked the article. Guess what else? I don’t give a shit if it’s 100% accurate. Good read. Well written. Would read again (not this one, the next one). Making EVE Journalism journalistic!

  • Punky260

    “with their Keepstar successfully unanchored and moved”

    Dude, it was all over reddit that the Keepstar and several Fortizars were sold to Goonswarm. Please check your facts before you start a wild guess on the next war :/
    Also, the stuff in and around Cloud Ring is just a easy content farm. For both, Horde and Goons alike. Don’t make this too big, IF the next conflicht between PL and Goons erupt, this has nothing to do with it.